Youth bulge and demographic dividend in nigeria article pdf available in african population studies 272. So if other factors arise that weaken or divide the government, the way is open for youth to lead in revolt. The effects of youth bulge on civil conflicts council on foreign relations. Social scientists label this demographic profile youth bulge, and its potential to. The theory of youth bulge was propounded by fuller 1990 whose study identified that the high presence of youth between the age of1524 in south korea threatened the political stability of the state. Empowerment theory of change so that world vision staff have a common language around youth livelihood programming, as well as a framework that will assist world vision in developing strategic interventions for youth at community, national, regional and global levels. Does a growing global youth population fuel political unrest. Demographics, youth bulge, economics, property premium and money theory gunnar heinsohn is a german author, sociologist and economist and professor emeritus at the university of bremen. As stated above, youth bulges are defined as large cohorts between the ages of fifteen and twentyfour, expressed as a percentage of the total population. The youth bulge theory assessing its implications for south. Harnessing the youth bulge if todays large group of young people cannot find employment and earn satisfactory income, the youth bulge could undermine economic growth, peace, and security. Youth bulge theory in the occupied palestinian territories by leanne elizabeth baumung b. Tajikistan is in the midst of a demographic transition, experiencing a youth bulge visavis. Pdf youth bulge and demographic dividend in nigeria.
A youth bulge is often cited as a contributor to political unrest 2, based on the belief that large youth cohorts create high youth unemployment. Mar 19, 2014 in such youth bulge countries, young men tend to eliminate each other or get killed in aggressive wars until a balance is reached between their ambitions and the number of acceptable positions. Youth bulges and youth unemployment motivation youth unemployment is a major policy concern. Official pdf, 31 pages world bank documents world bank group. The youth are the cornerstone to societal rejuvenation. Apr, 2007 the presence of idle and unemployed young people in the developing world, or socalled youth bulge, is emerging as a catalyst for internal violence. The corresponding youth bulge theory predicts that societies characterized by a youth bulge while simultaneously facing limited resources and, in particular, a lack of prestigious positions for surplus youngsters i. When the general assembly, by its resolution 5081 in 1995, adopted the world programme of action for youth to the year 2000 and. For decades youth bulge theory has dominated understandings of youth in mainstream international relations.
During the last few decades, a convolute of economic literature has emerged which focuses on the effects of demography, in particular the existence of socalled youth bulges, on economic growth and performance for an overview see e. A youth bulge makes it easier to mobilize the population for political protest. The theory of youth bulges and political violence the literature on youth bulges has focused in particular on spontaneous and lowintensity unrest like nonviolent protest, riots and rebellion. This thesis addresses the question of whether saudi arabias youth bulge presents a threat to domestic and international security. It explores the idea that the presence of more than 20% of young people raises the potential for rebellion and unrest.
The youth bulge has severe implications for labour. Youth bulge theory informs us that if countries are home to large youth populations whilst experiencing high levels of unemployment they are susceptible to civil unrest, terrorism or civil war. Discounting the doom youth theory of youth bulge, youth in crisis or lumpen youth culture, the article illustrates a paradigm shift in youth engagement in the conduct of elections. And most theoretical works concerned with youth bulges point to limited.
The youth bulge discourse and its assumptions 17 2. The idea that a large proportion of young people in a society may be a cause violent conflicts is not new. The socioeconomic and political impact of youth bulge is reflective. Youth bulges and youth unemployment iza world of labor. The blog of the wilson centers environmental change and. The demography and economics of the worlds youth bulge by david lam there are currently 1. Africas youth bulge an opportunity, not a liability africa. The presence of idle and unemployed young people in the developing world, or socalled youth bulge, is emerging as a catalyst for internal violence. Pakistan currently has largest percentage of young. Transforming the youth bulge into an opportunity in these kinds of cultural contexts requires a response based on several elements. Youth bulge synonyms, youth bulge pronunciation, youth bulge translation, english dictionary definition of youth bulge.
In such youth bulge countries, young men tend to eliminate each other or get killed in aggressive wars until a balance is reached between their ambitions and. The youth bulge is a demographic phenomenon strongly connected to security challenges. As incubator of extremism the youth bulge theory is a concept that identifies young men or women as a historically volatile and ever increasing population. Africas youth bulge strategic implications for growth. The youth bulge hypothesis says that whenever the proportion of young men in the population was very high, their unhappiness with their future prospects i. As a result, there has been no shortage of experts who have drawn on this hypothesis to opine on the potential of africas youth for violence. The effects of youth bulge on civil conflicts council. The youth bulge discourse in the pacific islands and melanesia 27 2. For proponents of the youth bulge theory, youth are defined as the category of peoples within a given population between 15 and 29 years of age see for instance, daumerie, 2008. Papua new guinea population pyramid from the us census bureau 2010 within the field of strategic demography, a key assumption of the youth bulge theory is the power in numbers fear, where large numbers of young people. Societies are not only recreated through the youthful population, but, youth are often referring to as leaders of tomorrow.
It is often due to a stage of development where a country achieves success in reducing infant mortality but mothers still have a high fertility rate. Youth militia in sierra leone, political violence led by youth in kenya, and the exploitation by political and military elites of young people in countries like liberia and rwanda are stark reminders of the negative impact exceedingly large youth populations. The effects of youth bulge on civil conflicts council on foreign. Globally, youth population aged 1224 years is currently about 1. A youth bulge is incendiary, says john weeks, a demographer at san diego state university in california who is among the theory s proponents. The youth bulge in africa fin national democratic institute. The youth bulge theory attempt s to explain and to predict social conflict, migration, conquest and war, and was first introduced by the cia in 1995 the demographic backdrop to ethnic conflict. Interpretation of current unrest the regions of oromia and amhara, where more than 60 % of the ethiopian population live, are now engulfed by protest, riots and sporadic armed clashes. In many countries a youth bulge can result in a shortage of jobs.
Africas youth bulge an opportunity, not a liability. The youths bulge represents both a challenge and an opportunity for development. Jun 10, 2010 youth bulge theory differs significantly from malthusian theories. A political economy approach asha amirali institute of development studies 11th november 2019 question what is the relationship between the youth bulge and political unrest in iraq. An article in last weeks new york times discusses a study recently published by population action international pai which suggests that. Transconflict the youth bulge theory assessing its implications. The global economic crisis hit many countries just as they were experiencing a youth bulgea demographic trend where the proportion of persons aged 1524 in the population increases significantly compared to other age groups. The youth bulge in africa and on other continents presents myriad reasons for concern. Youth bulge definition of youth bulge by the free dictionary. The youth bulge theory and its operationalizations.
Although a growing number of youth doesnt alone translate into unrest, he adds, the increase can be the kindling that sparks rebellion. The demography and economics of the worlds youth bulge. Greed or opportunity perspectives stress the material and other benefits like protection. First is the need to better understand the dynamics of youth identification, which vary from society to society. The study adopted the youth bulge theory and the secondary method of data collection.
The common thread across the latest research is that youth bulges alone do not cause conflict. In many subsaharan african countries, declines in child mortality combined with a slow decline in fertility have resulted in children and young adults comprising a large part of the overall population. In this study i argue that youth bulges are relevant for explaining the occurrence of more organized forms of political violence like internal armed. Does a growing global youth population fuel political.
Gary fuller 1995 described youth bulge as a type of expansive pyramid. Youth bulge theory is a demographicbased global discourse that has become prevalent in the sphere of security studies. A demographic theory of war gunnar heinsohns youth bulge. Youth bulge theory has also become part we use cookies to enhance your experience on our website. Recalibrating youth bulge theory saudi arabias youth and the. Increasing demand for new jobs and the youth bulge 6. The global economic crisis hit many countries just as they were experiencing a youth bulge a demographic trend where the proportion of persons aged 1524 in the population increases significantly compared to other age groups. Moreover, the lack of support for the youth bulge hypothesis in recent world bank studies is found to arise from a serious weakness in the youth bulge measure employed by world bank researchers. Jul 29, 2011 a youth bulge is incendiary, says john weeks, a demographer at san diego state university in california who is among the theorys proponents. Youth bulge theory engaging with a global discourse 2. Such countries have a history of rapid population growth and a high potential of future population growth with youth constituting the largest segment. Oct 20, 2014 transforming the youth bulge into an opportunity in these kinds of cultural contexts requires a response based on several elements. This youth bulge will critically impact pakistan as a country if not dealt with appropriately, depending on how the country invests in the youth by providing them with quality education. The youth bulge theory assessing its implications for.
May 09, 2017 the youth bulge theory attempt s to explain and to predict social conflict, migration, conquest and war, and was first introduced by the cia in 1995 the demographic backdrop to ethnic conflict. The theory argues that as the youth population increases, their demand for resources also increases and failure to avail the resources exposes the youth to delinquency especially armed. According to heinsohn, who has proposed youth bulge theory in its most generalized form, a youth bulge occurs when 30 to 40 percent of the males of a nation belong to the fighting age cohorts from 15 to 29 years of age. English, university of hawaii, 2005 thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of master of arts in the school for international studies faculty of arts and social sciences. Youth bulges and the social conditions of rebellion. A critique of the youth bulge theory in papua new guinea and melanesia. It will follow periods with total fertility rates as high as 48 children per woman with a 1529 year delay. Youth bulge refers to a demographic pattern where a large share of the population is. Rethinking youth bulge theory in policy and scholarship. Armed conflicts pose a great risk to a large number of peoples lives and wellbeing around the world. A critique of the youth bulge theory in papua new guinea and melanesia patrick kaiku university of papua new guinea introduction in this presentation. Experiences from many countries have shown that a large population of jobless, frustrated youth has the potential to become. Apr 27, 2007 the council on foreign relations cfr is an independent, nonpartisan member organization, think tank, and publisher.
A demographic theory of war gunnar heinsohns youth. Youth bulge, policy choice, ideological trap and domestic political unrest in ethiopia by tsegaye tegenu, phd 1 20160812 background. Understanding the focus on youth and the youth bulge 3. Youth exclusion, violence, conflict and fragile states.
Demographers refer to this phenomenon as the youth bulge. The theory contends that societies with rapidly growing young populations often. Furthermore, the study recommends that the government. In contrast to most other youth bulge theories, heinsohns approach which adopts. Social development direct youth exclusion, violence, conflict and fragile states pg 4 about why youth seem to have a higher propensity that other groups to engage in violence. Youth bulges, poor institutional quality and missing. The youth bulge is a common phenomenon in many developing countries, and in particular, in the least developed countries. Many developing countries have reached or will soon reach a histor ical peak in the size of their youth population, a peak that is. The youth bulge theory is a concept that identifies young men or women as a historically volatile and ever increasing population. She then diagnoses the problems with the theory, the belief that the youth bulge represents a security threat is partially based on the idea that population pressures inevitably cause resource scarcities, which in turn force young people to compete for limited educational and employment opportunities. The youth bulge simply put, is a demographic trend where the proportion of persons.
Kaiku, rethinking the youth bulge theory in melanesia figure 1. Introduction one of the greatest challenges facing governments and policymakers in africa today is. Within the context of dual motivation theory, the destructive engagement by. Rather, when unstable politics and social deterioration are combined with large numbers of disadvantaged young men, then new problems arise. The increase of that category is known as youth bulge. Pdf youth bulges, poor institutional quality and missing. Youth bulge theory is a demographicbased global discourse that.
The youth bulge nearly 50% of the developing world population is youth and children3. When the global crisis and youth bulge collide unicef. The socioeconomic and political impacts of youth bulge. Social development direct youth exclusion, violence, conflict and fragile states pg 1 youth exclusion, violence, conflict and fragile states. The present study investigates the impact of youth bulges on the armed conflicts in sudan. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
Youth and national development, unemployment and underemployment, national youth policy, social vices, millennium development goals targets and youth bulge. The youth bulge is defined as 20 percent or more of the population in the 15 to 24 age group. Youth engagement in the 2015 elections was more constructive than in prior elections. In this study i critique the youth bulge theory through the ethnographic sketches of five young papua new guineans. Getting the youth bulge wrong political violence at a glance. Pdf a critique of the youth bulge theory in papua new. Gunnar heinsohn 2003 argues that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social unrest, war and terrorism, as the third and fourth sons that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology. Youth exclusion, violence, conflict and fragile states report prepared for dfid. Its adherents see a combination of large male youth cohorts as graphically represented as a youth bulge in a population pyramid with a lack of regular, peaceful employment opportunities as a risk pool for violence. Youth bulges, poor institutional quality and missing migration. A recent report by usaid offers a brief but insightful view on some of current research on youth bulge hypothesis. It uses the 2008 census data on 25 states and builds a logistic regression model for the analysis.
Youth bulge specifically refers to a disproportionate percentage of a state population being between the ages of 15 and 24. Youth livelihood and empowerment theory of change glossary of terms contents vulnerability is a scale, not a permanent state of being. He was born on november 21, 1943 in gotenhafen gdynia, poland to roswitha heinsohn, nee maurer and the late kriegsmarine kapitanleutnant heinrich. The effects of youth bulge on civil conflicts council on. Moreover, the lack of support for the youth bulge hypothesis in recent. Pdf a critique of the youth bulge theory in papua new guinea and.
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